With last Friday night’s disappointing loss at Steinbrenner (Oct. 25), Palm Harbor faithful may think the chance for a postseason berth is over — but it’s not.
On Thursday, Nov. 7, PHU will take on rival East Lake for a chance to finish 2-1 in Class 6A-District 10. And if Largo knocks off Steinbrenner the same week — which certainly is possible? We’ll see the same three-way tie situation as we had last year that PHU emerged from as the district champions and a playoff team. If Steinbrenner beats Largo, the Warriors will finish 3-0 in 6A-10 play and lock up the title.
What’s different this year? Well, the best PHU can finish is 5-5 now. The Hurricanes scheduled a tougher slate than last year, which helps the strength of schedule as you can see below in the graphic (SOS category). But it’s now very unlikely that if the three-way tie at 2-1 takes place that PHU would win that computer tiebreaker for the district tiebreaker this year like it did last year with an 8-2 record.
How the playoffs work — the facts:
** Eight teams of this 18-team region you see below will make the postseason
** The 4 district champions automatically make the postseason (current leaders in blue)
** The 4 next best teams rated the highest in the rankings below will get the at-large spots (yellow)
So the next question is: Can PHU get an at-large spot?
The answer is yes, PHU can get an at large berth. Clearly it needs to win out against Dunedin and East Lake (one down, one to go), two teams that probably won’t help the ‘Canes SOS much. But let’s assume that happens: PHU is 5-5 on Nov. 8.
What else needs to happen? For fans, root for this:
** See the team teams in yellow in the graphic below? Unless PHU has played them? Root for them to LOSE from this Oct. 29 ranking until the end. PHU needs to get past teams like Lennard and Lakewood Ranch and Royal Palm Beach (for example), so the ‘Canes need those teams to drop hard and then maybe PHU squeaks into that lower Top 8 tier of at-large participants.
**Also, ROOT for the teams PHU has/have played this year. I know it sucks, but you want those teams like Calvary, Tarpon Springs, Parrish Community, Boca Ciega etc. upping their rankings by winning, while also upping their SOS and their record overall. That helps PHU’s SOS.
For the next few weeks, we will update this chart in this spot.
But no, this ‘ain’t over yet, ‘Canes. Do your jobs — win out. And let’s see what happens next. You don’t control your postseason destiny in a 100-percent sense … which is a bummer … but this isn’t done yet.
NOTE: PHU played No. 3 Mitchell in the preseason and took its lumps, but did have a ton of injuries. The ‘Canes fell to No. 5 Parrish Community in a game that saw several starters sit the game because of team rules, while PHU did knock off No. 6 Largo. PHU has had some hiccups and is young, but truly isn’t far off from being a top five team in this chart.
