Folks, here’s the latest:
Palm Harbor’s football hopes are completely intact, and PHU’s district championship hopes are completely intact.
Amazingly, PHU still completely controls its own district championship destiny, and certainly its postseason destiny. It’s been a while since the Hurricanes have been in this situation the second half of October.
But the final three games are really, really critical now.
Below, you’ll see the updated FHSAA ranking update for Oct. 18. This is how it all works. You’ll see that Palm Harbor is currently ranked No. 6 out of 17 teams in Class 4M-Region 2 (PHU dropped four spots after the Steinbrenner loss).
This chart represents the four-district region that possesses PHU’s district — 4A-District 6.
PHU (5-2) is still ranked No. 1 in its district by the computers, and that’s a massive deal. Why is this big when PHU is 1-1 in its league and East Lake is currently 2-0? Because if PHU knocks off East Lake next week, and Steinbrenner beats Sickles as expected, the following would happen:
With an East Lake win, PHU would be 2-1 in the district, but so would Steinbrenner and East Lake. The three-way tie would go as follows (and no, old timers — the crazy Kansas Tiebreaker system is long gone. We used to call it the Kansas Heartbreaker).
If there is a tie in the district standings:
From the 2023 FHSAA football sports manual:
4.7.2.1.3.2 – BREAKING TIES
(c) – If three or more schools are tied for first place in the final district standings and the tie cannot be broken based on the results of regular-season competition (head to head), then a district tiebreaker shall be based on the FHSAA Power Rankings throughout the regular season to include Week 11 games.
That’s why this week’s game at home against Seminole (4-3) isn’t just a throwaway non-district matchup. It matters greatly in the computer ratings the FHSAA uses. In this tiebreaker scenario, ALL games matter — not just district games. This week’s non-district Seminole game and the season finale at Dunedin (1-6) loom large, with next week’s East Lake (4-3) being the biggest game.
FHSAA POWER RANKINGS
CLASS 4M-REGION 2 (as of Oct. 18)
TOTAL 4M REGIONAL PLAYOFF FIELD: Four district champs host 1st Rd of playoffs, Four at-larges would travel to the four champs. Lastly, 9 schools whose seasons come to an end on Nov. 3. Final brackets would be revealed ASAP after Nov. 3.
NOTE: SOS means strength of schedule, a key component in the “Rating” that will determine a lot. The higher the SOS, the better.
Blue highlight indicates district opponents
Green (district leaders based on “Rating” so far — though the final standing will be by record)
Orange (these would be the 4 teams that get at-large berths based on these computer ratings)
