NOTE: Updated playoff picture is below this story. Want to know what things look like for PHU? Check the chart below.
Palm Harbor’s football team is known as the Hurricanes, but maybe the new mascot should be Trailblazers. They don’t seem complacent with the past here — and seem to want to experience new prep football realms in one of the top three states for prep football in America.
With PHU’s win over dreaded rival East Lake (4-5), Palm Harbor (7-2) now stands in very good shape to capture the Class 4M-District 6 championship. But the final word will have to wait until after PHU’s season-finale next week at Dunedin.
One thing that is about 99.9 percent certain: PHU is in the state football playoffs for the first time in 11 years. That’s not counting the pandemic year (2020) when all of Florida’s teams made a “playoff” during a shortened regular season.
After the season finale next Friday at Dunedin, the final Florida High School Athletic Association state ratings will be released and the three-way tie between PHU, East Lake, and Steinbrenner will be settled. Also, it will determine if the Hurricanes could host a first-round playoff game (likely, but not certain yet). Hosting will depend on PHU’s final seeding.
PALM HARBOR FOOTBALL HISTORY: The quick look
Trailblazing ‘Canes?
Maybe that’s the new label for them. Only four previous PHU teams had defeated East Lake, and it last happened in 2015. When you consider this is the most-played rivalry for PHU since the school first played varsity football in 1997 — you realize how big this win was. It is a neighborhood battle labeled the best Pinellas all-sports rivalry by long-time respected Tampa Bay sportswriter Bob Putnam, once with the Tampa Bay Times and now with PrimeTimePreps.com.
“After the game last week against Seminole I challenged the kids, and I told them — You’re scared of East Lake, and maybe I’m scared of East Lake as well,” PHU coach Mike Mullaney told PalmHarborSports.com. “Then, this week, I don’t know if I’ve seen as focused a team as this team was in practice. It was zero BS and everything was on point. The defensive coaches put a helluva game plan together. We had a couple of kids playing through some major bumps and bruises but they weren’t going to miss this one.
“I’m definitely going to celebrate my behind off. Our kids were just phenomenal.”
PHU’s defense has now held opponents to single-digit scoring in five of its nine wins and is giving up a school-record-low 13.7 points per game with one regular-season game remaining at Dunedin (1-8).
The ‘Canes defense, headed up by leading tacklers Gunner Fodor and Pat Iaconis, made the routine stops — but also the clutch stops, like Jason Ice’s clutch knockdown of a potential tide-turner TD pass, or Brady Messick or Zavion Roberts hurrying the East Lake offense into mistakes. The list of names of those who made clutch plays on D goes on and on.
That “collective effort” thing that has been preached at PHU like a pigskin version of religion? This group hasn’t missed any sermons.
Offensively, the ‘Canes were able to do the things they value most: Grind in the run game, hit a couple of timely passes, and chew up the clock so the opponent doesn’t get its offense on the field as much as it would like.
PHU Jr./QB Will Seibert, who dealt with AC joint issues in his throwing arm the past few weeks, came back with a vengeance — rushing for a 37-yard touchdown early and throwing another to Jason Ice for a 36-yard score. The ‘Canes were up 14-0 midway late in the second quarter.
Jr./RB Brady Messick was Mr. Clutch on key run plays, and scored the final touchdown of the game for PHU, plunging in from short yardage to essentially put the game away. He’s just the latest star and standout who emerge from a stable of contributors who can break open a game on any given Friday.
The offensive line looked old school several times in the game, many times piercing holes against what is known as a very well-coached East Lake team. Translation?: They earned their yards, and they continued their ability to eat the clock and keep drives going. Just like their coaches asked.
Gunner Fodor had an incredible game, finishing with a defensive effort with double-digit tackles and several negative yardage plays to be praised (official statistics are kept by the coaching staff after film review). He also blocked a field goal during a critical part of the game, one play after Jason Ice lept up and knocked down a likely TD pass. Also on special teams, junior kicker Mitchell Stricker hit a short field goal and is now only four away from tying the school’s career record (13).
Unfortunately for PHU, Fodor came off the field with assistance after a second-half injury, though the severity is not known yet. Fodor told PalmHarborSports that he’s not 100 percent sure what has happened to his right knee/leg, but said his goal is to be back no later than the playoffs (Nov. 10).
“Yeah, we worked our asses off this entire year for this,” Fodor told PalmHarborSports.com after the game. “It’s just the beginning of it all.”
FOR THE PLAYOFF BRACKET JUNKIE TYPES — BRACE YOURSELVES, IT’S ALMOST NOV.
OK gang … 17 schools are battling for eight playoff spots in our region, Class 4M-Region 2.
The chart below has the 17 schools, using the Oct. 24 version of the FHSAA computer “Power Rankings” (will be updated on Oct. 31 with one week to go, and finalized after PHU’s game with Dunedin). The final rating release by the state will determine the following:
- Did PHU win the district tiebreaker? (likely, but not definite). Also, a district champ will always host an at-large if they’re paired up via the final seeding (again, determined after the Dunedin game). Cross fingers, folks.
- What seeding situation is PHU in? As recently as two weeks ago, PHU was No. 2 out of 17 in this FHSAA ranking. The most recent spot for PHU is No. 6 as you can see below. If PHU clinches the tiebreaker, it would host ANY at-large opponent BUT if PHU is paired against a district champ and the seeding pits say — today’s rankings — Tampa Plant is No. 3 and PHU is No. 6, the ‘Canes would be on the road to Tampa Plant as a result. But remember — this has two more rankings to go.
- Take some Tylenol. After the Halloween Day rating comes out in a few days? I will prognosticate here beyond what you see below and break down every potential postseason scenario for our hometown ‘Canes based on Oct. 31.
KNOWN FACTS AS OF OCT. 27 — AGAIN PLEASE GRAB THE TYLENOL
- Three of 4A-Region 2’s four districts now know their district champs: 4M-5 was won by Orlando Olympia, along with 4M-7 Tampa Plant, and 4M-8 Plant City Durant — they’re are all set and locked in. PHU is in the lone district that will have to be determined by the final ranking. It is now officially a co-champ of 4A-6 — and if the previous ratings are an indication? After Nov. 3 PHU should clinch the 4th and final district title in this region.
- The problem for PHU? If Olympia, Plant, or Durant are seeded above the Hurricanes, there’s a chance PHU is on the road against one of those three on Nov. 10. On the flip side, there’s also a chance PHU hosts a playoff game against one of the at-larges on Nov. 10. It depends on the results next Friday (Nov. 3) and how this crazy computer rating system “figures it out”. Don’t hold your breath — but PHU is in really good shape to be playing Nov. 10 — THAT I wouldn’t lose sleep over. Where and against who? Who cares.
- If you look at the chart below, it’s becoming very clear who will be alive in November and who will be done next Friday. Orlando Dr. Phillips will be an interesting at-large to keep an eye on because this week will very likely lose to a pretty impressive Orlando Jones team. But aside from Dr. Phillips, it’s hard to see any of the eight potential playoff teams losing on Nov. 3 to hurt their case. Plus, how bad is a loss to Jones for D.P.? The computers may not drop D.P. much.
- As of today? Hillsborough County clearly has the best collective in 4M-Region 2, schedule strength-wise — as can be seen below. That gaggle of Plant, Sumner, Riverview, Sumner, and Durant (and maybe throw in Plant City) clearly endured the toughest road (this has a lot to do with Steinbrenner — who beat PHU — being basically eliminated at 3-6). If Plant City gets in, that’s looking like 5 Hillsborough teams out of 8 spots, with Orlando area’s 2 and Pinellas only getting 1 (PHU?).
HERE’S THE UPDATED CHART (WITH RESULTS FROM LAST NIGHT)
IN GREEN: Clinched district championships this week and they are ALREADY IN.
IN YELLOW: In decent shape to be in the state playoffs.
IN ORANGE: PHU’s district — 4M-6 (not resolved, as PHU, East Lake and Steinbrenner are tied at 2-1)
IN RED: Effectively eliminated from 2023 and their seniors are likely done one week from today.
RATING: FHSAA rating points
SOS: Strength of schedule viewed from the FHSAA computer ratings (and top SOS situations are shown in Green).
